PetroChina Gas Pipeline Talks Collapse

by Paul Denlinger

Posted Aug. 4, 2004

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PetroChina signalled its desire to end its business talks for a gas pipeline leading from Russia in the west to Shanghai with its western partners, Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil. Russia's gas monopoly, GazProm, was also involved. The project, known as the West-East project, failed because PetroChina said that it was unable to pass higher gas prices on to its consumers in Shanghai and its immediate environs.

The project had support from the former premier Zhu Rongji, who wanted to switch China from relatively highly-polluting Chinese coal to the cleaner gas. It was also seen as a flagship project for western energy firms in China, where they would be able to tap into China's huge and growing consumer energy needs. While Standard Oil, Exxon's predecessor had a significant presence in China before WWII, it had virtually no presence after the founding of the Peoples' Republic in 1949.

However, gas prices are still higher than coal, and the business proposition did not fly. Significantly, the Chinese government refused to subsidize gas prices to make the deal work.

ExxonMobile was insistent on returns of 15%.

The original proposal were for PetroChina to own 50% of the pipeline, with Exxon, Shell and GazProm each owning 15%. SinoPec, a Chinese refiner, would own 5%.

The negotiations were a case study in how business discussions became more complicated, instead of simpler. The parties each negotiated on their own behalf, instead of sharing risks as a group. The result was that each party effectively had a veto.

The construction of the pipeline had progressed ahead of the business discussions, and the pipeline is already largely completed and partially operational.

Energy prices and futures are now highly volatile because of strong demand from China and concerns in the war against terrorism. In recent days, energy futures prices, especially oil, have hit new highs.

Chinese consumers will have to pay higher energy prices than they are currently paying. When that happens, it is likely that the Chinese companies who handle refining and distribution will reap higher returns, while the western energy firms will be left out.

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