Private Vehicles in China Now 12 Million

by Paul Denlinger

Posted Aug. 23, 2004

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The number of private vehicles in China now stands at 12 million. Assuming current rates of growth, China's demand for motor vehicles will reach 5.90 million units in 2005, increase to 10 million units in 2010 and further to 17 million units in 2020, which is equal to the consumption scale of the United States in 2004.

The figures were released by the National Bureau of Statistics, a state agency. Based on the information, China had more than 24 million motor vehicles in registration for civilian use by the end of 2003, of which 12.19 million were privately owned.

The Chinese definition of private vehicles is different from most other countries, and includes buses and trucks which are operated by private individuals. Taxicabs, which are often owner-operated, are also counted as private vehicles. Taxi companies which operate their own fleet of taxis are only present in the larger cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai.

Beijing is leading China in private ownership of motor vehicles. By the end of July this year, 2.22 million units were registered in Beijing, including 1.48 million privately owned, and 1.04 million privately owned small vehicles (including passenger cars and SUVs). Based on the population of 14.50 million, Beijing's average ownership of vehicles is about 14 persons or five families per unit.

Vehicle ownership stands at about one unit for every 20 families in Nanjing, capital city of East China's Jiangsu province.

China is still far behind some countries in private ownership of vehicles, at less than 20 units per 1,000 persons as compared with 600 units per 1,000 persons in developed countries. The ownership of cars for personal use is even smaller, indicating a big potential market for development of automotive industry in China.

Strong vehicle demand in China has accounted for a rise in oil prices on international markets. Oil reserves are tight, and production is expected to fall in coming years.

Current oil consumption is 81.2 million barrels a day, and is expected to climb to 84 million barrels a day in 2005, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This is up from the 82.6 million barrels a day projected three months ago. More than one year ago, a projection of 84 million barrels a day was made for 2007 or 2008.

Increased oil demand from China accounts for a 2.5 million barrel a day increase in demand in the new IEA projections.

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