Ohmae: Yuan To Rise To Four Yuan Against Dollar
In Four Years
Kenichi Ohmae, Japan's leading strategic management consultant
guru, predicted that China would continue to become more
economically powerful in coming years, and the yuan would
rise within four years to an exchange rate of more than
four yuan to one US dollar. The current official rate
is 8.28 yuan to one US dollar.
Ohmae
made his remarks while on a visit to Taipei at the invitation
of a leading business association. He indirectly criticized
the policies of Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian, saying
that Taiwan's relations with China were "overly dominated
by ideology", and that Taiwan had an advantage of
only five years more over China. After that, China would
lead Taiwan in all areas and sectors.
To remedy this situation, he suggested that the newly
elected president of Taiwan, to be chosen on March 20,
should make an unconditional visit to China, to improve
relations with China. Up until now, relations with China
have been blocked because Chen has refused to negotiate
under the principle of one China, insisting instead that
China and Taiwan should negotiate as two equal countries.
This policy has been widely criticized, even by Taiwan's
main supporter, the Bush administration.
Ohmae said that Taiwan companies had been very successful
in China, investing in Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Suzhou,
Dongguan, Shenzhen and other cities in China. "The
depth of investment in China is something no other country
can come close to matching," he said. "Taiwan's
greatest asset is its people, there are people who can
speak Japanese, English, Mandarin Chinese and Fujian dialect;
this is something other countries simply do not have.
The people from Taiwan need to let others know that they
know not only how to survive, but prosper, in China."
With the end of the cold war, he added, Taiwan had lost
its strategic value. He said that if there were a conflict
between Taiwan and China in the next two to three years,
the US would probably come to Taiwan's aid. "After
that, forget it," he said.
In 2003, Ohmae made the famous prediction that Taiwan
would be politically re-united with China by 2005.
Commenting on the Chinese conditions for re-unification
with Taiwan, put forward by Chinese premier Wen Jiabao
stating that Taiwan could keep its own military, its own
constitution and legal framework, and its own currency,
Ohmae added his opinion. "This is the same as being
an independent country; what more do you want?,"
said Ohmae.
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