Second Chen Term Sets Stage For Military Confrontation
with China
The narrow and contested victory of Chen Shui-bian as
Taiwan's president sets the stage for a military confrontation
with China in the coming four years, as the window for
Taiwan independence closes, and as China prepares for
the Beijing 2008 Olympics.
Chen's narrow victory of 30,000 votes was largely ascribed
to a sympathy vote after the attempted assassination made
on his life in Tainan on the evening of March 19. Guomindang
(Kuomintang) critics have charged that the assassination
attempt was staged; Chen was not driven to the nearest
hospital, instead he was driven to Chi-mei hospital which
is known for sympathies to his DPP (pro-independence)
policies. On the day of the elections, all police and
military were put on alert and not allowed to vote. The
Guomindang argues that this move cost them 200,000 votes,
as the police and military are largely pro-Nationalist.
In a rebuttal of his policies, Chen's referendums did
not pass. During the past four years, Chen has performed
poorly on economic policy and relations with China. This
raises the question; what does he want to accomplish in
the next four years?
Chen has stated that his goal is to revise the old 1948
Republic of China constitution, and replace it with a
new 2006 Taiwan constitution which would then go into
effect in 2008. This move would formalize the break with
China, and would make Taiwan an independent nation which
is not a part of China.
Chen's gamble is that Beijing will not choose to attack
Taiwan while the world's attention is focused on the Beijing
Olympics, which the Chinese leadership sees as an unprecedented
opportunity to show China as a modern developed country.
Some Chinese officials have warned that China is willing
to sacrifice the Olympics over the issue of Taiwan.
While Chen is democratically elected, like his predecessor
Lee Teng-huei, he has autocratic tendencies, and tends
to push forward his policies regardless of opposition
domestically, and from China and the US. Domestically,
he will wait for the opposition to cool down, and then
will put forward his proposed changes.
Chen needs to make his formal independence moves now,
while pro-Taiwan independece sentiment is strong, especially
in southern and central Taiwan, and before China's economic
power becomes so great that formal opposition becomes
meaningless.
He is also counting on the US coming in to support a
formal break with China, and is currying the favor of
conservative members of the US congress to get their support,
so that when the time comes, the US will commit military
force. In spite of pressure from the Bush administration
to buy modern weapons from the US, Chen has avoided doing
so, and has told his domestic supporters that he is confident
that he will be able to bring the US in to militarily
support Taiwan's independence move. This converges with
the current distrust and fear of China in the US, which
is seen taking away American manufacturing and service
jobs.
While Chen has won the election, he does not have the
support, for the most part, of Taiwan's business community,
especially those with a strong manufacturing presence.
During the next few years, there will be moves by many
Taiwan businesses to move their operations, and even headquarters,
out of Taiwan, and increasing their presence in China.
This will lead to a faster hollowing out of the Taiwan
economy.
Taiwan's stock market depends on a special government
reserve when it goes down to maintain stability. As the
market goes down, the government will use this reserve
more frequently to finance Chen's high-risk policies.
Inevitably, this will mean that the tax base in Taiwan
will get smaller, and those businesses which remain in
Taiwan will be taxed at a higher rate.
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