Taiwan Election Results Present Headache For
Everyone
In the presidential elections held in Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian,
the current president, won with 6,470,517 votes, beating
Guomintang (Kuomintang) challenger's Lian Chan 6,443,019
votes by less than 30,000 votes. Lian Chan has refused
to concede defeat and has asked for a recount, while Chen
has claimed victory.
Lian Chan has called on the Central Voting Commission
in Taipei to declare the election results null and void,
and asked for a full ballot recount. The commission has
declared that some 300,000 ballots were defaced and declared
void, which is about one-tenth of the difference between
the two candidates.
Already Lian supporters in Taiwan have claimed that there
were irregularities in the voting process. The assassination
attempt in Tainan has not been clearly explained and
no suspects have been caught, and Lian supporters claim
that it was staged in order to get out a sympathy vote.
The final polls conducted 10 days before the election
(Taiwan law does not permit polls later than 10 days before
the election date) showed Lian leading by 5 points.
At the time of writing, Lian supporters in Yunlin in
central Taiwan have claimed that the number of ballots
counted have exceeded the number of ballots collected
by voters.
Even harder to explain is why the defensive referendum
so strongly supported by Chen Shui-bian, against the will
of the US, France and China, failed to pass if he were
elected. The referendum question was whether Chinese authorities
should remove missiles targeted at Taiwan, and if Chinese
authorities did not, should Taiwan buy more defensive
weapons from the US. Because the referendum vote required
more than 50 percent of voters participating to count,
and the referendum failed to cross that number requirement,
it failed. But, Chen's supporters should have supported
the referendum and voted yes on it, in defiance of Washington,
Beijing and Paris, as he made it an important part of
his campaign. If Chen won, the referendum should have
passed.
It just doesn't make sense.
Chen Shui-bian wants to make the revision of the constitution
the centerpiece of his second term. The current constitution
of the Republic of China, as it is officially known, was
drafted in 1947, when the Guomintang still ruled China.
Chen wants to replace it with a new Taiwan constitution,
and formalize Taiwan as an independent political entity
from China. China has pledged to use all means, including
military force, to stop his plan. The Chinese position
is that the referendum was a run-up for a future independence
referendum.
Chen is gambling that China would not use force as it
prepares for the Beijing Olympics in 2008, but China has
said that any independence moves would over-ride Olympics
considerations. He is also gambling that the US would
be willing to intervene militarily on Taiwan's side.
The struggle over the results of this vote will last
long, and for Americans, it brings back memories of the
Florida vote in 2000.
The hope in business circles was that no matter who won,
it would be a clear decisive victory so that Taiwan's
economy, which was showing signs of improvement, would
continue to get better. But now it appears that the highly
political climate in Taiwan will get even more polarized.
In Washington and Beijing, Taiwan will continue to be
a wild card. Today, it got even wilder.
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