Yukos Turmoil Throws Siberian Pipeline Into Doubt

by Paul Denlinger

Posted Oct. 31, 2003

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Russian President Putin's arrest of Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky has cast a long shadow over China's plans for a pipeline through Siberia to China. The pipeline to China was supported by the Chinese government, which is seeking to expand oil imports from overseas for an energy-hungry China.

China's economic growth has fueled demand for oil, especially because of heavy consumer purchases of cars. Earlier in the year, China signed a 25-year, $150 billion agreement with Yukos to supply oil to China, which was led by Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Now Khodorkovsky is in jail, and facing trial for tax evasion. Khodorkovsky was known in Russia as one of the "new oligarchs", and had been openly critical of President Putin.

Khodorkovsky had a reputation as an aggressive deal-maker, and at the time of his arrest, was in negotiations with ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco about a multi-billion dollar stake in the company. But yesterday, the Russian government moved to freeze a 44 percent block of shares in the company. Western oil companies have expressed an interest in Russian oil because of the political instability in the Middle East, and general hostility, in particular, to American interests.

China's three oil companies, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC, have sought to quietly make deals to secure oil contracts to insure China's future oil supplies. The most immediate questions are whether this arrest will have a long-term effect on management decisions made by Khodorkovsky? Will the Russian government honor contracts made under his watch? Or will they want to install their own people, and effectively bring the company under government control? And how will they earn back the trust of the foreign business community, including China's?

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