Standard and Poor’s Raises China’s International Bond Ratings

by Paul Denlinger

Posted April 16, 2003

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The outlook on China's long-term foreign-currency bonds was raised on April 16, 2003 to "positive" from "stable" by Standard Poor's Corp., which cited surging exports, record investment inflows and growing private ownership of companies.

The change, the first in almost four years, means Standard Poor's is more inclined to raise China's BBB rating, which is a level above the lowest investment grade.

China "is rapidly laying the foundations of a more market-oriented economy less reliant on government spending to maintain GDP growth," according to Ping Chew, director of sovereign ratings at Standard Poor's.

For China, higher credit rating would help sustain economic growth, already the fastest of any major nation, by reducing borrowing costs. China Mobile (H.K.) Ltd. China is expected to report on April 17 that its economy grew more than 9 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, the fastest pace in four years, officials have signaled.

The decision by Standard Poor's to raise China's debt-rating outlook suggests the company does not expect the outbreak of the deadly SARS virus to slow Chinese foreign direct investment or hurt its ability to pay foreign debt. China has reported 65 deaths from severe acute respiratory syndrome, a disease Chew said could add complications to spending and investment into China.

China's booming exports and inflows of foreign investment have swelled foreign-currency reserves by about two-fifths from a year earlier to $316 billion at the end of March. Its reserves, the world's largest after Japan's, are more than nine times the country's short-term debt, according to Standard Poor's.

But China's initial media ban on reporting about the SARS virus and its moves to bar the World Health Organization from visiting hospitals show that the country still has much to do in terms of reforms.

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